Since the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) popularly known as the Paris agreement (or the Paris accord) on 12th December 2015 laid the groundwork to set a long term goal to limit global warming to 1.50C by 2050, there has been concerted efforts by various countries and energy companies to explore methods of producing energy with less CO2 and make a shift towards energy security and sustainability.
Energy to power our homes, industry and transportation will take a new direction within the next 6 years as it will become more democratic.
The drive for Carbon neutral fuels will shape our future therefore it is clean sources that provide us the same or better value proposition than fossil fuels (petrol, Diesel etc.) that will triumph.
The main advantage that hydrocarbon fuels offer is high ‘energy density’ which means they possess a huge amount of energy yet occupying only a little space (like a fuel tank) and low weight. Some disruption to the energy industry will be discussed below.
Renewable energy sources (Solar, Wind and Hydro) will evolve, buildings and city architecture will incorporate them in their plans like solar panels on the roofs of our homes and will be better enhanced such that solar panel windows and blinds will become energy dispensers as graphene (a material discovered in 2004, by Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov , professors at the University of Manchester) will replace most conductors because of its high conductivity, making it possible to improve performance such that any surface becomes a potential energy dispenser that we could literally charge our phones through them.
Electric vehicles would not only be popular for transportation, but they will also serve as energy banks that can be used to power homes when not in motion. Lager vehicles like buses that can store more batteries can even supply to the grid (school buses for instance during weekends or when pupils are on vacation).
Green Hydrogen production will be upscaled and cheaper. Hydrogen has unique advantages as it is one of the most abundant elements and can produce energy with or without combustion (hydrogen fuel cells). Another vantage property it possesses is that unlike renewable energy sources it has high ‘energy density’ (the same benefit offered by fossil fuels) yet can generate electricity without CO2 emission and noise.
Hydrogen Fuel-Cells provide a more efficient solution than batteries because storage of electricity is very difficult (the reason Lead-acid battery weighs 17 times more than petrol for the same amount of energy or Lithium Ion, an improved form of Lead-Acid batteries, is 2-3 times weight for the same energy capacity of petrol).
However, the biggest drawback of Hydrogen is the cost of green hydrogen production (that is producing hydrogen by breaking the molecules of water using renewable sources like solar or wind energy) as 95% of industrial hydrogen is produced from fossil fuel sources (or Gray hydrogen) according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Biofuels will be used by municipalities as a way of managing their waste as these wastes are converted to power these cities. Biofuels are widely used in North America, Europe, some parts of Asia and South Africa where fuels produced from ethanol are blended with petrol (E5, E10). Also, in Europe, USA, Australia and the UAE, Sustainable Aviation fuels (SAF), a blend aviation fuels and biofuels have been tested and certified for use. Many experts have argued that food production will be affected by Biofuels, hence the use of food waste rather than Corn Starch, Sugar cane and wheat is mainly propagated.
Geothermal energy will be boosted, not just siting at places like Iceland because of their volcanoes but nearly everywhere. There is a massive amount of heat in the earth crust and as oil reservoirs dry up, they can be used as a medium to inject water into the earth to produce steam that powers steam turbines for the generation of electricity.
Water and Gas injection is already a practice in the Oil and Gas industry as an enhanced form of oil recovery and storage for CO2 (CCUS). All facets of life will be disrupted by new energies. In Agriculture for instance, Solar panel crystals can be better arranged to focus light on plants for hydroponic farming this will reduce the need for water by up to 95%.
As already demonstrated, there will be no ‘one’ solution to the energy need but a combination of energy sources and this is appropriate. Imagine if our cars were 100% Mechanical, It means that when Iya Basira is set for Owambe with all her Gele popping, she would need a rope wound around the pulley of her engine to start up her car like an ‘I better pass my neigbhour’ generator or have her friends push it, but Henry Ford’s discovery has helped us to have a car start with a key (electrically) even though the engine is operated mechanically with chemical reactions (combustion). Electrical, Mechanical and Chemical energy in one device.
But is Africa ready?
Today, Africa seen by many large corporations as a continent to derive raw materials, and not the development of Energy transition business, however, ignoring Africa will be business suicide.
Like the story of two merchants who discovered a place where people didn’t wear shoes, one thought it will be an exercise in futility to do business there ‘the people are poor’ he said. The other thought it will be a great business idea to provide them shoes, so he did, and he was correct.
Many foreign companies were not ready to invest in our telecoms 22 years ago because about half of the population were living under $2 a day, and Telephone (fixed/land line) penetration was only 1%. According to DataLeum the Nigerian telecoms industry in 2024 is worth $9.09 billion and it is projected to hit $11.4 billion in 2029.
Just as many African countries leaped frogged two generations of telephone, it is also ready for new energy development. Despite many countries in Africa wanting an extension of the 2050 carbon neutral goals (since our contribution to the greenhouse gas is only 4% of the world’s emission, we are net negative) the energy deficit makes Africa a breeding ground for alternative sources of energy that will be available, cheap, and efficient.
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