What is Polymarket and how did it become the biggest predictor of the US election? 

The run-up to the United States elections slated for Tomorrow November 5 has been rife with many polls predicting the outcome of the elections.

In the Myriad of polls put in place mostly by media houses and think tank groups, one particular poll has become the go-to poll for everybody and has become the biggest predictor of momentum in the run-up to the elections.

Polymarket, a crypto betting platform where users stake money on the outcome of events has become the defacto Poll of the US general elections with millions of US citizens following the Poll judiciously and making real-world decisions based on the results of the Poll.

What is Polymarket

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market. Global players of Polymarket Trade on the world’s most highly-debated topics like crypto, politics, sports, current events, and more. The site allows users to stake funds on the Outcome of events.

• According to the site, several studies have shown that prediction markets are often more accurate than pundits because they combine news, polls, and expert opinions into a single value that represents the market’s view of an event’s odds.
• In Polymarket, you can buy and sell shares representing future event outcomes (i.e. “Will Donald Trump win the US election? ).
• Shares in event outcomes are always priced between $0.00 and $1.00 USDC, and every pair of event outcomes (i.e. each pair of “YES” + “NO” shares) is fully collateralized by $1.00 USDC.
• Polymarket has been used by Top voices like Elon Musk to indicate the direction of the US elections as the platform mirrors people’s prediction of events backed by their hard-earned money.

The prediction and betting angle to Polymarket gives it a slight edge over other polls which are usually formed from the opinion of people with no skin in the game.

Polymarket Current Prediction  

The US election is less than one day to go and Polymarket prediction puts Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris, although Kamala Harris’s odds are on the rise.

The latest Polymarket Poll puts Donald Trump at a 54.8% chance to win the US elections while Kamala Harris trails with a 45.1% chance.

Donald Trump is also slightly leading in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada while Kamala Harris leads in Wisconsin and Arizona.

What to Know   

• An anonymous French trader bet $28 million on a Yes share for Donald Trump’s win significantly driving up Donald Trump’s odds on Polymarket.
• Kamala Harris has gained momentum in the last days of the election campaign following a trail of election endorsements by top celebrities like Beyonce, Cardi B, and Eminem.