Cocoa futures have surged by over 80% year-to-date, with more than a 10% rise since October, as adverse climate conditions severely disrupt the harvest season for the world’s top producer
In Ivory Coast, the world’s top producer of cocoa beans, heavy rains—particularly in the southwestern region—have intensified since the final week of September.
These downpours have not only hindered the harvest but also complicated the drying process and delayed the transport of beans to the ports.
As a result, cocoa futures prices, which were already on the rise, have surged further, lifting the year-to-date increase from 65% to over 80%, amid global supply concerns.
According to estimates from the Ivorian government, cocoa bean arrivals at the country’s ports between October 1 and 6, 2024, amounted to just 13,000 tons—a dramatic drop from the 50,000 tons recorded during the same period last year.
Market Trends in Cocoa Futures
Cocoa futures, which are tradable contracts, reflect the global balance of cocoa supply and demand.
In 2024, these futures saw a significant uptick, with gains accelerating between January and March, surpassing the levels seen during the same period in the previous year. By March, cocoa futures contracts had surged by 132%, reaching 9,776 units and showing strong bullish momentum.
This sharp rise in March was primarily triggered by unfavourable weather conditions in Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. Strong seasonal winds and insufficient rainfall affected the harvest, contributing to rising prices.
Since then, the market has struggled to stabilize, with supply fears driving further volatility.
Most recently, the onset of heavy rains in Ivory Coast has reignited concerns, disrupting harvests, drying operations, and transportation, which has once again pushed cocoa futures prices upward.
Insights from Ivorian Cocoa Traders
Speaking with newsmen, a bulk buyer who sources cocoa from the southwestern regions of Duekoue, Guiglo, and Man confirmed that the heavy rains had returned at the end of September, worsening conditions for bean collection and transportation.
“Since late September, we’ve seen a return of heavy rains that have rendered roads impassable and made village tracks completely unusable,” he said.
He further explained that he had been unable to retrieve 60 metric tons of cocoa that his middlemen had already collected from various villages.
An exporter in the country’s capital, Abidjan, shared similar concerns. He highlighted not only the delays in arrivals but also the potential damage to the quality of the beans due to prolonged exposure to moisture.
“We’re noticing a slowdown in cocoa arrivals at the ports, but what concerns us most is the declining quality of the beans.”
The Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) of Ivory Coast has attributed the reduced availability of cocoa this season, in part, to delays in seed stock, compounding the effects of the weather.
If the heavy rains continue, further deterioration in harvest, processing, and transportation conditions could drive cocoa futures even higher in the coming weeks, as the market braces for deeper supply shortages.
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